The U.S. dollar in Argentina is heading toward a new surge as financial markets brace for a significant currency adjustment in November and December 2025

Argentina is entering another phase of currency tension as markets anticipate a sharp rise in the U.S. dollar during November and December.

Analysts at major Argentine banks and international institutions, including JP Morgan, forecast the exchange rate could climb to around 1,500 pesos by year-end, with some more cautious scenarios warning it may even hit 1,550 if political uncertainty deepens.

Investors say the peso is under pressure due to persistent inflation, a lack of U.S. dollar reserves at the Central Bank, and a widening gap between official and parallel exchange rates. The upcoming administration of President Javier Milei is adding to the volatility.

Despite campaign promises of drastic economic reform, the president-elect and his yet-to-be-defined cabinet have not presented a clear plan to stabilize the economy, reduce the fiscal deficit, or negotiate with the IMF.

Financial markets are demanding clarity on how the government will tackle inflation, lift currency controls, and rebuild credibility after years of economic instability and what the incoming administration has called the legacy of corruption and mismanagement under previous Peronist governments.

Meanwhile, Argentina faces one of its most delicate macroeconomic situations in decades—annual inflation approaching triple digits, net reserves below zero, falling consumer confidence, and a contracting economy.

Traders, investors, and multinational banks are watching four pressure points: Central Bank reserves, IMF negotiations, sovereign bond prices and country risk levels, and every public statement from Milei’s economic team. A base-case scenario in the financial sector places the official dollar between 1,400 and 1,500 pesos by December, assuming gradual policy moves and no major political disruptions.

A pessimistic scenario—marked by policy delays, internal disputes, or failed talks with international creditors—could push the dollar past 1,550. Optimistic projections, considered less likely, suggest the currency could settle between 1,300 and 1,400 pesos if the incoming government presents a credible stabilization plan and secures external support. In short, markets have already priced in a devaluation. The question is not whether the peso will fall, but how sharply—and whether the new government can regain confidence before the currency loses further ground.